Liberty vs Lynx Prediction & Best Bet: WNBA ATS Pick 7/30/25
Liberty vs Lynx prediction and best bet. WNBA expert pick, ATS trends, and why Minnesota may have the edge in a Finals rematch on July 30, 2025.
by R. B. Dressler | Jul 30, 2025 | betting
Free Play Prediction The biggest moment in the WNBA last night wasn’t a play made by a player on any team. In Atlanta, score tied 75-75, 50 seconds left in the game, an object was lobbed onto the court. Some of the players didn’t see it, so play continued. Apparently, the cameraman didn’t really see it either because he panned over to the object lying on the court, zoomed in on it, and then quickly turned the camera away because it was a BIG, GREEN – how do I say this? – Well, there is no polite way to say this, it was a rubber sex toy. A BIG, LONG, sex toy (that for some reason was bright, lime green. Alien phallus replica? Hell if I know.)
Even funnier than the TV audience being treated to a picture of it by the unsuspecting cameraman was the announcer’s comment when she realized what it was. “Oh my, that’s inappropriate.”
I guess we just add it to the list of other things that you’ll see in the WNBA but won’t see in an NBA game. (And I thought Canadians were weird for throwing octopuses on the ice.)
But I digress. Vastly.
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Tonight, we have one of the key matchups of the 2025 WNBA season. The number one team in the Eastern Conference, the New York Liberty (17-8), take on the number one team in the Western Conference, the Minnesota Lynx (22-5.) This is the first time they’ll meet since the Liberty beat the Lynx for the WNBA Championship last season.
NY is coming off a 10-point loss in Dallas, but don’t make the mistake of thinking they got caught flat while looking ahead to taking on Minnesota. New York has lost five of their last six on the road. Making matters even worse for Liberty lovers, they’ve lost every game by double digits. The Dallas game may look close on paper, but the Wings had a 12-point lead after the first quarter and were up by 27 at the half. As six-point underdogs!
And you can’t blame it on Breanna Stewart being out. She missed the game at Dallas but was in four of the other five losses for her full allotment of minutes.
NY is only 5-5 SU on the road and 2-8 ATS. The Liberty are one of the best teams in the league so maybe those eight ATS losses came as Rd Favs, which would make the losses less relevant from a betting point of view as they’re +8 point Dogs in Minnesota tomorrow. Nope. In three of the eight losses, they were the Dog. And they lost all three, to Seattle by 10 points, Phoenix by 15 points, and Atlanta by 9 points. That makes them 0-3 as Rd dogs, and all three wins came by more than the +8 they’re getting from Minnesota.
Min is 14-1 SU at Hm 10-6 ATS. Playing at home with a spread of eight or higher, the Lynx are 10-5 ATS. After losing their first two home games when favored by 10 or more, they’ve reeled off eight straight covers.
This is the first meeting of these two teams this season, but last year they played four regular-season games, the Commissioner’s Cup Championship game, and five games in the WNBA finals. The Liberty won three of the five meetings during the regular season, and the two losses were by two points each, meaning if you got NY +8 like you’re getting tonight, you would have won every single game last year. In the finals, New York won three of five, and both losses again came by just two points each.
The recent trends show Minnesota can comfortably lay the -8 points based on their home average margin of victory. But, Head to Head play shows grabbing the +8 with the Liberty would be the wise move to make.
The question is – which to weigh more heavily?
I’ll take this year’s play over last year’s play. Yes, the number is a little high, but the opening -8 is now down to -7. And I have this – my handicapping model that’s based on point spread differentials between my number and the book’s has a record of 14-13. Not much of an edge, right? But when it’s a home team, the record is 11-7, a 61% edge. And anything over 58% gets my money.
My play:
Min -7′
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What does 5 dimes mean in betting?
Dime: $1,000. (A “five-dime” bet is a $5,000 bet.) Dime line: A betting line with a 10-cent straddle, often used in baseball. (With a dime line, if the favorite is minus 120, the underdog is plus 110.) Dog: See “underdog.”
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